1. Scale: The F‑Tone Index ranges from 0 (extremely dovish) to 100 (extremely hawkish). It measures the Federal Reserve’s policy tone as expressed in official speeches, FOMC statements, and minutes.
2. What “hawkish/dovish” means: The score reflects a combined assessment of two factors:
– Imminence: how soon a change to the federal funds rate is expected.
– Sharpness: how large or decisive that change appears.
These factors are weighed equally. The AI analyses the text for language about inflation, employment, growth, and policy guidance, then returns a single number capturing both the urgency and magnitude of potential rate actions.
3. Change arrow: The ▲ or ▼ shows the daily change in the 7‑day moving average of the raw scores. A ▲ indicates the index became more hawkish compared to the previous day’s smoothed value; a ▼ indicates a dovish shift.
4. Confidence: HIGH, MEDIUM, or LOW reflects the breadth of sources analysed and the total text volume. HIGH means ≥4 sources and >8,000 characters of Fed text were processed; MEDIUM means ≥2 sources and >3,000 characters; LOW means fewer sources or less text. It indicates how much information the day’s reading is based on, not the accuracy of the AI score.